Two years ago, Rafael Nadal won his last hard court Major. Much like it has this fortnight, the draw opened up for Rafa at the 2017 US Open, as he didn’t face a top 20 seed to win that title. Over the next year, he would only complete two hard court tournaments without retiring or withdrawing, as he suffered from knee issues that have plagued his career. He again had to withdraw from his scheduled Indian Wells semifinal against Roger Federer this past March due to his knee. But this summer, Nadal has been in peak form on hard courts. For the first time in his entire career, he defended a hard court title by winning his second consecutive Rogers Cup. And now he’s into his fifth US Open final, having dropped only one set.
A year ago, Daniil Medvedev wasn’t even seeded at this event. He had just entered the top 50 after winning the lead-up tournament in Winston-Salem. The 23-year-old would win another title just a few weeks later in Tokyo, and continued to build momentum in 2019. He leads the ATP with 50 match wins, 20 of which have come within the past six weeks on an incredible run through the summer hard court season. Medvedev has reached the final of his last four events, and finds ways to win despite being exhausted and a bit injured from all the tennis he’s played. But a tired Daniil didn’t behave his best on court, inciting boos from the New York audience on multiple occasions. However, he’s made nice with the crowd in his last two matches, and should receive a rather pleasant welcome when he walks onto the court for his first Major final.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Daniil Medvedev (5)
Just like the women’s final from yesterday, this is a rematch of the Rogers Cup championship match earlier this summer. On that day, Nadal allowed Medvedev only three games, crushing the Russian 6-3, 6-0. Based on that result, which is their only previous meeting, and considering how emotionally and physically fatigued Medvedev is at this point, it’s hard to imagine Daniil prevailing on this day. Medvedev has been able to win some matches this fortnight he frankly had no business winning by exposing his opponents’ weaknesses, supplying them with no rhythm, and allowing them to crumble under the weight of the moment. But Rafael Nadal is not a player who is susceptible to such tactics. While I’m sure Rafa will be feeling a bit nervous as he plays for his 19th Major, which would pull him just one title behind Roger Federer, he takes no match for granted, and will compete as if his life depends on it. Medvedev will need to go-for-broke as he did to take out Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati a few weeks ago, but sustaining that level against Nadal in a best-of-five match is a daunting task. I hope Daniil can make a match out of this, but the outcome feels inevitable. Nadal should win comfortably, making the chase for the most Major singles titles between himself, Federer, and Djokovic all the more compelling.
Other notable matches on Day 14:
Four top singles players face off in the women’s doubles final, as it will be Indian Wells and Miami champions Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka (4) vs. Vika Azarenka and Ash Barty (8), who won in Rome earlier this year.
