Of the eight singles quarter finalists playing today, only one has ever before appeared in a Major final. That would of course be Rafael Nadal, who is a 26-time Major finalist, and has won 18 of those finals. As if that doesn’t already paint Rafa as a heavy favorite, he’s 7-0 against his opponent today. In the other men’s quarterfinal, it’s a speedy and flashy veteran against a powerful and passionate newcomer. On the women’s side, the youth movement is in full effect, with all of today’s competitors at 23 years of age or younger. Which of these four youngsters will step up and advance to their first Major final?
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Diego Schwartzman (20)
Rafa and Diego played a few high-quality contests last year at Majors. The issue is Schwartzman is yet to win one. And unlike Djokovic and Federer, Nadal has looked in peak form at this event, and fully healthy. Rafa is also well-rested, having only dropped one set, and getting a walkover in the second round. That is a stark contrast to last year, when he played some grueling matches in the middle rounds of this tournament. Nadal is a heavy favorite to reach his eighth US Open semifinal, against a player who is 0-2 at this stage of Majors.
Bianca Andreescu (15) vs. Elise Mertens (25)
The 19-year-old Canadian hasn’t lost a completed match in over six months. Granted she missed many of those months due to injury, and had a walkover and a retirement mixed in there, but it still encompasses 21 completed matches. And the Rogers Cup champ hasn’t lost all summer, currently on a 10-match win streak. But going this deep at a Major is brand new territory for Bianca, and her opposition today has been crushing it at this tournament. Elise Mertens has only lost 16 games in eight sets played (and won). As Carole Bouchard reported on Twitter, Mertens changed her service motion leading into this event, to help alleviate arm and shoulder pain. It’s paid immediate dividends, as she’s only been broken twice through four matches. But this is a big step up in competition for Mertens, who is yet to face a seeded player. In their first career meeting, I don’t think there’s much separating these two, aside from Bianca’s fight. She’s exhibited her will power time after time this season, and I’m not betting against her to reach her first Slam semifinal.
Gael Monfils (13) vs. Matteo Berrettini (24)
This should be good. Both men have been playing some great tennis during this fortnight, on the heels of strong seasons. They’re both in the top 15 of the year-to-date rankings. And their contrast in styles should make for some great, complex rallies. Monfils possesses a decade of extra experience over the 23-year-old, but Matteo has proven a quick learner on tour with his quick rise up the rankings. On the heels of this career-best result at a Major, Berrettini will rise to a career-high ranking on Monday. They’ve never played before, and Monfils is always a wild card as to exactly what version of him will show up, especially in a big match situation. But he’s become a more reliable competitor of late, and his game should be enough to diffuse the power of the Italian. And as great as Berrettini played in his last match against Andrey Rublev, a letdown in the biggest match of his career seems likely. I like Monfils to return to the US Open semifinals for the first time in three years.
Belinda Bencic (13) vs. Donna Vekic (23)
In her first year on tour, Bencic reached her first Slam quarterfinal here five years ago at the age of 17. Now after her career was sidetracked by injuries, she’s finally back in a quarterfinal after her takedown of world No.1 Naomi Osaka. Meanwhile this is Vekic’s debut at this stage of a Major, and she’s frankly a bit lucky to be here. Julia Goerges served for the match in their fourth round encounter, but choked the match away. But Vekic is an extremely talented player, who like Bencic has persevered through some lean years of her own after some early success as a teenager. They’ve split two previous meetings, though neither was on a hard court. Bencic prevailed five years ago on grass, while Vekic won comfortably earlier this year at Roland Garros. Bencic is a bit quicker around the court, and has more guile in her game. She should advance here, though I worry if she’s due for a letdown of her own following her upset of Osaka. But Bencic’s experience advantage over Vekic should help her navigate her way to her first semifinal at a Major.
Other notable matches on Day 10:
In the mixed double semifinals, Sam Stosur and Rajeev Ram (3) vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands and Jamie Murray, who are the defending champions.
And the other semifinal finds sisters on opposite sides of the net, as it will be Hao-Ching Chan and Michael Venus (1) vs. Latisha Chan and Ivan Dodig (4).
Order of play
Arthur Ashe Stadium
12:00:
(13) Belinda Bencic (Swi) v (23) Donna Vekic (Cro)
(24) Matteo Berrettini (Ita) v (13) Gael Monfils (Fra)
00:00:
(15) Bianca Vanessa Andreescu (Can) v (25) Elise Mertens (Bel)
(20) Diego Sebastian Schwartzman (Arg) v (2) Rafael Nadal (Spa)
