By Matthew Marolf
The “Big 3” of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic have combined to win the last 10 Majors. And they are easily the top three favourites to win this title as well. Meanwhile nine different women have prevailed at the last 10 Slams, with Naomi Osaka being the only female player to take two Majors since the start of 2017. Without a strong favourite in the women’s draw, we could easily see the lack of parity continue.
Dominic Thiem (5) vs. Sam Querrey
Thiem is coming off his second straight appearance in the French Open final, but is just 5-5 lifetime at SW19. We’ve seen Dominic discover success on hard courts over the past year, can he similarly improve his results on grass? He’ll be challenged immediately here by a player who reached the quarterfinals or better in two of the past three years.
And Querrey owns victories at Wimbledon over both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. The 31-year-old American has battled injuries and struggled to get match wins over the past 18 months, and finds himself ranked 65th in the world. But he was a finalist just this past weekend in Eastbourne, while Thiem didn’t play a warmup tournament on grass. Dominic is 3-1 against Querrey, though they’ve never met on this surface. The reports of the grass playing slowly this year will please Thiem, but I still wouldn’t be shocked to see Querrey upset the fifth seed in the opening round.
Angelique Kerber (5) vs. Tatjana Maria
As the defending ladies’ champion, Kerber will commence Day 2’s schedule on Centre Court. She faces an elder countrywoman in their first career meeting. The three-time Major champion is yet to successfully defend one of those titles, and is only 3-2 in title defences.
And Maria is no pushover, whose only career WTA title came last year on grass. Last year at this tournament, Tatjana also played the No.5 seed in the opening round, and upset Elina Svitolina. And Maria was a semifinalist a few weeks ago on the grass of Nottingham. She has a strong first serve that could complicate matters for Kerber, who I’m not convinced will be fully comfortable walking onto Centre Court as the defending champion. Will the upset bug from Day 1 carry over to Day 2?
Marin Cilic (13) vs. Adrian Mannarino
It’s been a pretty brutal 52 weeks for Marin Cilic. Since the 2017 finalist was shocked here in the second round a year ago by Guido Pella, it’s been a year of many given-away leads, and almost as many losses as wins. The only bright spot during that time was Davis Cup triumph for Croatia. He’s now ranked outside the top 15 for the first time since his 2014 US Open victory.
And he runs into an in-form opponent today in the 31-year-old Frenchman, who just won his first ATP title a few weeks ago on the grass of s-Hertogenbosch. They’ve split two previous tour-level meetings, with Cilic winning on grass at Queen’s Club in 2015, and Mannarino prevailing in 2017 on a hard court in Tokyo. Both of those three-set matches went the distance. Prior to his early loss here last year, Cilic reached the quarters or better four straight times. However, considering his current severe lack of confidence, the tricky Mannarino just might send him home today.
Petra Kvitova (3) vs. Ons Jabeur
The two-time Wimbledon champion would normally be a big favourite in this opening round matchup, but she wasn’t sure if she’d even be able to play today. The left-hander has been dealing with a left arm injury that forced her to miss the French Open and the grass court warm-up events, and admittedly has barely been able to practice.
Kvitova has also struggled at this tournament since last winning it five years ago. Since her 2014 triumph, she’s a meek 4-4 at The All England Club. This will be her first match against the 24-year-old from Tunisia. Jabeur was a semi-finalist just last week in Eastbourne, but was forced to withdraw from that tournament with her own injury to her right ankle. With a lot of doubts surrounding the condition of both players, the result here is far from clear. But if Kvitova is close to healthy, and can find her way out of the first week of this fortnight, she could be a huge threat in the latter rounds.
Sloane Stephens (9) vs. Timea Bacsinszky
Stephens is on a three-match losing streak at Wimbledon, and having lost in the opening round in each of the last two years. She was a quarterfinalist here in 2013, but is just 4-5 since that time. And Sloane lost her only match on grass heading into this event, with Jelena Ostapenko taking her our last week in Eastbourne. Bacsinszky is also a former quarterfinalist here, though she also lost in the first round of Eastbourne last week.
Timea has battled multiple injuries over the past two years, and this is only her third appearance at a Major during that time. But Bacsinzaky actually owns more career victories at SW19 than Stephens. Sloane is 2-0 against Timea, and defeated her earlier this year in Davis Cup on a hart court. If Stephens is at her best, she should prevail here as well, though we’ve seen throughout her career how prone she can be to opening round upsets at Majors. Since 2015, she’s just 8-6 in the first round of Grand Slam events. This will be a tough test for Sloane on her least-favourite surface.
Other notable matches on Day 2:
Serena Williams (11) vs. Giulia Gatto-Monticone (Q). Serena has been battling injuries all season, but told the press this weekend that’s now behind her.
In his 21st consecutive Wimbledon appearance, Roger Federer (2) vs. Lloyd Harris, a 22-year-old South African.
Rafael Nadal (3) vs. Yuichi Sugita (Q), a 30-year-old from Japan.
French Open champion and new world No.1 Ash Barty (1) vs. Saisai Zheng. Barty holds a 2-0 edge over Zheng, though both matches went three sets.
Eastbourne champion Taylor Fritz vs. 2010 finalist Tomas Berdych. Berdych reached the semis the last two times he played here, but this is his first match in four months due to injuries. The 33-year-old admitted this could be his final Wimbledon appearance.
