Everything has fallen nicely into place for the King of Clay to win his astounding 12th title at Roland Garros. Rafael Nadal has looked healthy throughout this clay court season, and steadily improved his form after a few surprising losses on his precious terra baute. Rafa has dropped only one set this fortnight, and fell on the preferred side of the draw. With his half playing first, Nadal was able to avoid having his schedule delayed by rain. He also drew Roger Federer in the semifinals, a much easier opponent on clay than Dominic Thiem. With a win today, Nadal will be just two Major titles shy of Federer for the first time in 15 years.
Dominic Thiem is into his second Major final at the age of 25, and his second consecutively at the French Open. A year ago, he lost to Nadal here in straight sets. He comes into this year’s final on one of the best runs of his career. Since joining forces with new coach Nicolas Massu, Thiem is 21-4, with two titles. The problem today is the tennis gods, weather gods, and tournament officials have wreaked havoc with his playing schedule, making this his fourth consecutive day of play. His extended semifinal against Novak Djokovic was completed less than 24 hours before this match will begin, with almost three hours of that match taking place yesterday. Oh, and there’s one more issue… he’s facing a well-rested King of Clay, who is 11-0 in French Open finals.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Dominic Thiem (4)
Nadal owns an 8-4 record in their head-to-head, with all but one of their previous meetings taking place on clay. That was their epic match in the quarterfinals of last year’s US Open that went well into the morning, decided by a fifth-set tiebreak in almost five hours. Of course that means Thiem’s four wins have all come on clay, including their only match this year in the semifinals of Barcelona. But all of Dominic’s victories have come in best-of-three set matches, and he’s 0-9 in sets played against Rafa at Roland Garros. This is the third straight year where Nadal will face a one-handed backhand in the final here, and it’s so tough for players with that stroke to take three sets from Rafa on clay. While I hope Thiem can make this competitive, I fear Nadal will not allow that. A Thiem victory would be a truly monumental upset. Regardless, let’s appreciate the sheer greatness we’re witnessing today. We may never again see a player go 93-2 (if he wins today) at a Grand Slam event, with 12 titles in 12 finals played.
Other Notable Matches on Day 15:
In the women’s doubles final, Timea Babos and Kiki Mladenovic (2) vs. Yingying Duan and Saisai Zheng. Babos and Mladenovic were finalists in both New York and Melbourne, and are one a nine-match winning streak dating back to their title in Istanbul. Meanwhile this is only Duan and Zheng’s second WTA-level tournament together, and they had no wins as a team prior to this fortnight.
