By Matthew Marolf
With cooler temperatures and no rain in the forecast, Saturday should deliver some high-quality tennis on the courts of Melbourne Park.
On the halves of the singles draws playing today, 22 of 32 seeds have held true to the third round. That’s an impressive number by recent standards, especially in regards to the WTA. As Pam Shriver highlighted on Twitter, this is the first Major since Wimbledon 2009 that the top eight women’s seeds all advanced to the third round. Consequentially, we’re in for some great matchups heading into the first weekend of the tournament.
Simona Halep (1) vs. Venus Williams
Both of these Major champions survived dramatic matches to reach this blockbuster third round encounter. After coming back from a set and a break down against Kaia Kanepi on Tuesday, Halep came back from 2-4 down in the final set to defeat Sofia Kenin on Thursday. Venus also needed three sets in her first two matches, but soundly won the third set against both Mihaela Buzarnescu and Alize Cornet.
I would assume both of these players will be less than 100% physically on Saturday, as they’ve each spent almost five hours on court. And Halep hurt her leg during her second round, though she downplayed the severity of the injury following the match. Venus and Simona have played five times before. Venus took the first three meetings, while Simona prevailed in the last two. Venus actually hasn’t won more than two games in a set in those two most recent matches, including their Rogers Cup contest in August.
Venus is eager to start off 2019 strongly after a disappointing 2018, and this is a great opportunity to get a big win over the world No.1, who is not at her best. But we’ve seen so many cases of Halep’s fighting spirit both this year and last year in Melbourne. I’m not betting against Simona’s ability to find a way to win this one as well.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Denis Shapovalov (25)
This will the first career meeting between the 14-time Major champion and the 19-year-old Canadian phenom. Shapovalov struggled a bit heading into this tournament, going 1-5 at his last five events. As Tennis Channel in the US outlined, his team was working to make some adjustments to his groundstrokes, and his form suffered as a result. But Denis won both of his first two rounds in Melbourne in straight sets, so it seems he’s feeling more comfortable on court again. Djokovic also is yet to drop a set, and has been playing magnificent tennis since July of last year.
Of course the world No.1 is the favourite here, but the lefty shot-maker has a fighting chance if he continues to rack up the winners. In his first two matches, he hit a combined 94 winners, while only striking 58 unforced errors. Djokovic’s movement though will force Shapovalov to find even sharper angles and hit closer to lines, so maintaining such a positive winner-to-error ratio will be extremely challenging.
Naomi Osaka (4) vs. Su-Wei Hsieh (28)
Here we have two of Asia’s highest-ranked players on the WTA tour. Osaka has quickly become one of the world’s best players, as well as one of the most popular. Unlike many of her peers, Naomi has thus far avoided a drop in form following her maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open. The 21-year-old had strong results in Asia in September, and comfortably won both of her opening rounds this week in Melbourne. Hsieh has one of the more unique styles on tour, playing with little pace, and a mix of flat groundstrokes and low-bouncing slices.
Hsieh gives her opponents different responses than most other players, often throwing them off balance. The 33-year-old from Taipei is a two-time Major doubles champion, and former doubles No.1. 2018 was one of her best seasons of singles results. A year ago in Melbourne, she upset both Garbine Muguruza and Agnieszka Radwanska. Hsieh then went on to upset Halep in a great match at Wimbledon. She’s a lot of fun to watch, and could cause nightmares for Osaka. In their only previous meeting, Osaka prevailed in three sets at a small grass court event in 2015. Naomi should pull through here as well as long as she doesn’t let Hsieh’s play prevent her from playing her game.
Elise Mertens (12) vs. Madison Keys (17)
This could be a good one, between two former Australian Open semi-finalists. Keys has been one of the WTA’s most consistent performers at the Majors, reaching the quarterfinals or better at four of the last five. She’s done so while struggling outside the Grand Slam events, and while dealing with some injuries. At non-Majors last year, she went just 13-10. Madison is coming off another yet another injury in her career, as her left knee caused her to skip the tournaments leading up to this one. And she has a new coach this season in Jim Madrigal, who previously coached a few American ATP players.
Keys is 1-0 against Mertens, having defeated her in straight sets on her way to the 2017 US Open final. Elise though is a much better player now, coming off a breakout 2018 which saw her claim 46 match wins. Her rise started in earnest a year ago in Australia, winning the title in Hobart and making the semi-finals in Melbourne. While Mertens does not possess the weapons of Keys, she’s a much steadier player who will rarely defeat herself.
Neither player has a dropped a set thus far during this fortnight. As with most of Madison’s matches, she can control the result here if she plays her best. She’s looked confident and comfortable on court this week, and I have a feeling she’ll successfully overpower Mertens on this day.
Daniil Medvedev (15) vs. David Goffin (21)
Medvedev is not a guy who garners a lot of headlines, but he’s a dangerous player with a big game who has quickly climbed the rankings. The 22-year-old Russian first made an impression on tour a year ago, when he came through qualifying to claim the title in Sydney. He would go on to win two further hard court titles last year, in Winston-Salem and Tokyo. And he started off 2019 by making the final in Brisbane, with victories over Andy Murray, Milos Raonic, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Through two rounds in Melbourne, no opponent has taken more than three games in a set off Medvedev. Daniil is the real deal, and could easily soon contend for Major titles.
However, Goffin is the type of opponent that can diffuse the power of Medvedev. Goffin is great as using the opposition’s pace against them, and is one of the quickest players around the court. David reached a career-high ranking of No.7 in the world in 2017, but never reached his peak level of play last year as he sustained multiple injuries. The style clash between these players should make for an entertaining four or five setter. Medvedev is yet to get farther than the third round at a Major, but I suggest that will change today.
Other notable matches on Day 6:
Serena Williams (16) vs. 18-Year-Old Ukrainian Dayana Yastremska, who already knocked out Sam Stosur and Carla Suarez Navarro.
Sascha Zverev (4) vs. Australian Wild Card Alex Bolt, who saved four match points to defeat Gilles Simon in five sets on Thursday.
Italy’s Fabio Fognini (12) vs. Spain’s Pablo Carreno Busta (23), who are both yet to drop a set this week.
