Roger Federer will be in serious danger of not advancing to the semifinals for only the second time in 16 ATP Finals appearances if he loses to Kevin Anderson on Thursday. And even a win doesn’t fully secure Federer’s spot in the semifinals. Roger’s only way of qualifying in defeat on Thursday is if Dominic Thiem wins in straight sets. Except for a few extreme cases, Anderson will qualify even if he loses to Federer, except for a few extreme cases.
Embed from Getty Images
With a 0-2 record and having not yet won a set this week, Thiem’s only chance of advancing is if he defeats Kei Nishikori in straight sets and Anderson defeats Federer in straight sets. And even then, Thiem’s advancement would be determined by highest percentage of games won between himself, Federer, and Nishikori. Nishikori will likely advance if he wins on Thursday, unless Federer wins in straight sets. Nishikori can also possibly advance with a loss on Thursday, but only if Anderson defeats Federer. Got all that? If not, the below grid from the ATP may be helpful.
Lleyton Hewitt Group Standings
Advancement Scenarios for Thursday:
#NittoATPFinals SF scenarios ⬇️ for @rogerfederer, @kandersonatp, @keinishikori, @ThiemDomi #ATP pic.twitter.com/K7K2qT3Lpf
— ATP World Tour (@ATPWorldTour) November 13, 2018
Dominic Thiem vs. Kei Nishikori
Kei holds a 3-1 record against Dominic, with Thiem’s only win coming at Roland Garros earlier this year. Nishikori owns victories over Thiem on all three surfaces, including a few weeks ago on an indoor hard court in Vienna. Kei dropped just four games in that quarterfinal. Nishikori played one of the worst matches of his career on Tuesday, taking only one game in a sound defeat at the hands of Anderson. But I would expect Kei to bounce back and play much better tennis today, and he’s a much stronger hard court player than Thiem. Dominic is only 2-6 lifetime at the O2, and is yet to advance to the semifinals, while Nishikori has done so in two of his previous three appearances. I expect Nishikori to prevail here today, though his advancement will still depend upon the result later this evening.
Roger Federer vs. Kevin Anderson
Embed from Getty Images
These two met four months ago in this same city. That was of course in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, a match in which Federer held a match point in the third set. Roger though couldn’t close the match out, and ended up losing to Anderson 13-11 in the fifth. While that epic encounter will be fresh in both players’ minds, it remains Anderson’s only win over Federer. Roger won all four of their other meetings in straight sets: three of which were on hard courts, though all took place between 2013 and 2015. Kevin is a much different player today, and currently leads the Lleyton Hewitt Group after some stellar play this week. Federer rebounded nicely on Tuesday after dropping his opening match, and I’m sure he’ll be eager to avenge the painful Wimbledon loss from earlier this year. However, there’s a lot more pressure on Federer than Anderson based on the current standings and advancement scenarios. And if Nishikori indeed wins earlier in the day, Federer will know he needs to win in straight sets to have a chance of advancing. While I like Roger’s chances to overcome Anderson on an indoor hard court, taking him out in straight sets will be challenging considering Kevin’s current level. Thursday should prove to be a compelling day in London.
