The ATP Q4 Report Card - UBITENNIS

The ATP Q4 Report Card

By Matthew Marolf
11 Min Read


Co-GOAT contenders Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer combined to dominate the 2017 season. Just as the debate rages on regarding which is the GOAT, the same debate exists regarding which had the better year. Who is the true ATP Player of the Year? Let’s compare their 2017 resumes, and also look at other notable performers from Q4 and the full year.

Rafael Nadal

  • 10,645 points
  • 67-11 match record (.859 winning percentage)
  • 6 titles overall, including 2 majors (Roland Garros, US Open, Monte-Carlo Masters, Madrid Masters, Barcelona, Beijing)
  • 13 weeks ranked #1 (as of today)

Analysis: After missing significant portions of 2016 due to injury, Nadal came roaring back to have his best season in four years. He reasserted his dominance on the clay, winning the tournaments in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona for the tenth time in his career, respectively. Rafa then won his tenth French Open, which was his first major title in three years. He followed that up with another major win in New York. Nadal spent the last three months of the season back at the number one ranking.

Roger Federer

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  • 9,605 points
  • 52-5 match record (.912 winning percentage)
  • 7 titles overall, including 2 majors (Australian Open, Wimbledon, Indian Wells Masters, Miami Masters, Shanghai Masters, Halle, Basel)

Analysis: Much like Nadal, Federer returned from an injury-plagued 2016 to dominate the competition in 2017. In his first tournament in six months, Roger shocked the tennis world by defeating four top 10 seeds in Melbourne on his way to winning his first major since 2012. This included an epic five-set victory over his rival Nadal, where he came back from being down a break in the fifth set. Federer would go 4-0 against Nadal in 2017, a significant turn in a rivalry Nadal has dominated in the past. Roger won a tour-leading seven titles on the year, amassing his best winning percentage in over a decade. He won his ninth career title in Halle, before taking his eighth career title at Wimbledon.

Nadal or Federer: Who is the true Player of the Year?

Federer’s 4-0 record against Nadal this year is a significant consideration, as is his total of only five losses on the year. But also significant is Federer’s decision to sit out the entire clay court season. If they had met on clay, Rafa likely would have gotten the better of Roger. You could argue Federer may have ended the year ranked number one had he played the clay season, as he ended the year only 1,000 points behind Nadal. However, you could also argue Federer would not have done as well in the second half of the season had he not rested in April and May. And while Roger had a better winning percentage, Nadal had 15 more wins on the year, and deserves consideration for playing the entire season.

If Roger had won the ATP Finals this past weekend, I was ready to consider him as the better player this year. That would have given him the most prestigious title outside of the majors. It would also have given him 900 more rankings points, putting him just 140 points behind Rafa. Without that title, there’s not enough evidence to support bumping him up passed Nadal, who should be considered the ATP Player of the Year.

Best of the Rest in Q4:

Grigor Dimitrov

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  • 5,150 points
  • 49-19 match record
  • 4 titles (ATP Finals, Cincinnati Masters, Brisbane, Sofia)

Analysis: Dimitrov had a roller coaster year of high and lows, but it was by far his strongest season to date. He won four titles in 2017, including his first Masters 1,000 tournament. He ended the year with his biggest title yet, going 5-0 at the ATP Finals and reaching a career-high ranking of number three. Grigor started the year just as impressively, beating three top eight players in winning the title in Brisbane. A few weeks later, he played one of the best matches of the year, narrowing going down in defeat to Nadal in a five-hour Australian Open semifinal. Will this year be a peak year for Dimitrov, or is this the start of bigger things for Grigor? Following these career highs, I expect Grigor to struggle a bit in the immediate future.

David Goffin

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  • 3,775 points
  • 57-24 match record
  • 2 titles (Tokyo and Shenzhen)

Analysis: Goffin ended the year strongly, defeating both Nadal and Federer on his way to the championship match at the ATP Finals. He now sits at a career-high number seven, and his year is not quite done yet: he will represent Belgium in the Davis Cup final against France this weekend. His ranking could easily be even higher had he not suffered a freak injury at Roland Garros which forced him to retire from that tournament as well as miss the entire grass court season. I look for Goffin to remain a fixture in the top 10 in 2018.

Jack Sock

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  • 3,165 points
  • 38-21 match record
  • 3 titles (Paris Masters, Auckland, Delray Beach)

Analysis: Jack Sock came out of nowhere and took advantage of a wide open draw in Paris to win his first Masters 1,000 title, which qualified him for the ATP Finals on the last possible day. He also impressed in London, defeating Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev along the way before losing in the semifinals to Dimitrov. Sock had a great start to 2017 as well, with two titles and strong performances in Indian Wells and Miami. It’s the middle of the season where Sock struggled, going just 13-15 over a seven-month stretch. Can Sock find more consistency in 2018? And how will he react to the new expectations that come with being ranked in the top eight? I would not be surprised to Sock’s level drop off early in 2018.

Juan Martin Del Potro

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  • 2,595 points
  • 38-16 match record
  • 1 title (Stockholm)
  • US Open Semifinalist

Analysis: Following the US Open, Del Potro continued his momentum throughout the fall. Juan Martin went 15-4 in Q4, including a semifinal run at the Shanghai Masters and winning his first title since 52 weeks prior in Stockholm. Unlike Sock, who may be playing a level of tennis that will be hard for him to sustain, this felt more like a return to form for Del Potro. I expect Juan Martin to return to the top 10 in 2018, and to be a significant factor at the big tournaments. Let’s hope the Argentine remains healthy throughout the year.

2017 Honorable Mentions

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Alexander Zverev came into his own in 2017, winning five titles and ending the year ranked number four. However, he did not end the year well, with a 7-6 record in Q4. This could be the beginning of the infamous sophomore slump for Zverev, where players suffer in form during the second year of prominence. Similarly, Dominic Thiem had a strong first half of the year, but severely dropped off in the second half. While he finished the year in the top five, the Austrian had an abysmal 3-6 record in Q4. However I see Thiem finding his way again in the new year. Marin Cilic had one of the strongest seasons of his career, highlighted by reaching his second major final. That being said, he appeared to struggle with his nerve as the year progressed, and was the only player to go 0-3 at the ATP Finals. It may be challenging for Cilic in 2018 to maintain his 2017 level.

2018 Scouting Report

Last year’s top five players (Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic) are all expected to be back playing full-time. Will these former champions return to glory in 2018 just as Nadal and Federer did in 2017? All spent the latter parts of this year dealing with injuries, and many of them are also dealing with changes to their coaching teams. I would expect it will take some time for most of them to get back into top form. And which players who stepped up in their absence will maintain their results upon the return of so many top names? Will 2018 finally be the year we see a player born in the 1990’s win a major title? And then of course there’s Nadal and Federer. It seems unrealistic for them to dominate as they did in 2017, but can they stay healthy and add to their major title tallies? With this mix of generations competing against one another, 2018 should be another fascinating year on the ATP tour.

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