Friday’s lineup at Roland Garros features two blockbuster semifinals with four players in impressive form. Three of the four semifinalists have not dropped a set, and the fourth is the #1 player in the world. While Murray has not been at his best in 2017, his form has steadily improved over the past two weeks in Paris, and he’s now playing his best tennis of the year.
Whoever wins on Friday, we’ll be seeing a fresh matchup in the final on Sunday. The only two of the four semifinalists to ever meet in a major final are Nadal and Wawrinka, and that only happened once. Stan defeated Rafa in the 2014 Australian Open to win his first major, but that match was spoiled by an injury to Nadal. It would be extremely interesting to see these two former French Open champions meet again in an injury-free final, especially since Wawrinka is 3-0 in major finals and Nadal is 9-0 in French Open finals. Amazingly, Nadal and Murray have never met in a major final, the only combination of the “big four” where that holds true. And then there’s Dominic Thiem, who looks to reach his first major final after a strong clay season and definitively defeating the defending champion Novak Djokovic.
Andy Murray vs. Stan Wawrinka
This will be the battle of the three-time major champions. Their career head-to-head is tighter than you may think considering Wawrinka blossomed into a top player late is his career. Murray still holds the slight edge 10-7. This is a rematch from last year’s French Open semifinals, where Murray bested Wawrinka in four sets. But that victory followed a much stronger season for Murray than he’s had in 2017. Wawrinka also struggled for much of 2017, but Stan is a player who doesn’t thrive as much off long-term momentum: he can get hot out of nowhere within a single tournament. Coming off winning a title in his home country the week prior to Roland Garros, the Swiss #1 (yes, he’s ranked higher than Federer) hasn’t dropped a set in Paris. Based on recent form, Wawrinka should be favored to gain revenge from last year’s semifinal loss. Notably, Stan will surpass Djokovic for #3 in the rankings with a win on Friday, and would go to #2 if he wins on Friday and Nadal loses.
Rafael Nadal vs. Dominic Thiem
Nadal does not often lose at Roland Garros. He is an amazing 77-2 lifetime. But Nadal did lose to Thiem the last time they played, at the Rome Masters a few weeks ago. That followed two victories for Nadal earlier this year in the Barcelona and Madrid finals. Thiem has also beaten Nadal on another occasion: last year in Buenos Aires. Oddly, their six previous meetings have all taken place on clay, though perhaps that’s not so odd considering their clay prowess. Thiem had one of the biggest victories of his career in defeating Djokovic on Wednesday. After defeating Nadal in Rome, Thiem’s last big victory, he only won one game the next day against Djokovic. But Thiem should be much more rested physically and emotionally on Friday, especially since he’s had a day off between matches. Neither man has dropped a set in the tournament. Thiem is one of the only players on tour that can hang with Nadal on clay when Rafa is in top form, as he has been this season. Nadal is the favorite to reach his tenth French Open final, but this should be a thriller between 2017’s top two clay court players.
