With Serena Williams only playing 2 tournaments thus far this year, and the underperforming current #1 Angelique Kerber, the WTA Tour remains a land of opportunity for new names to breakthrough. But when we will see a new player ready to step up for any considerable length of time? Examining the performances of the most notable players from the first three months of the season, as well as their prospects heading into Q2.
Serena Williams
There’s really not much analysis needed here – Serena remains the favorite in every tournament she enters, sometimes even if she’s not 100% physically. She has reached the semifinals or better in the last 10 majors. This feat is made even more impressive by her lack of play outside of the majors. Her ability to win majors without significant match play speaks just as much to her abilities as it does her lack of rivals.
results
Auckland – R2
Australian Open – Champion
Angelique Kerber
Kerber’s 2017 results have been disappointing, but not entirely surprising. As impressive as her 2016 run was, she never struck me as a player that should be counted on to win majors in every following year. Rather, it felt more like Mauresmo’s 2006: a career highlight with 2 majors won. While clay is Kerber’s weakest surface, she has won on the clay before. She has no points to defend at Roland Garros, and with Serena unlikely to play many (if any) tournaments leading up to Paris, Kerber’s run at #1 could easily continue into the grass court season.
results
Brisbane – QF
Sydney – R2
Australian Open – R4
Doha – R2 Dubai – SF
Indian Wells – R2
Miami – QF
Monterrey – Runner-up
Karolina Pliskova
Pliskova is currently #3 in the world, and #1 in the Race to Singapore. She has become the tour’s most consistent performer. Karolina has not previously had strong results on clay, but she’s a different player now than she was a year ago. I wouldn’t pick her to win the French, but I would expect her red clay results to improve in 2017. And while she’s yet to find success at Wimbledon, it’s hard to believe that would continue considering her game. Also keep in mind Pliskova won the 2016 Nottingham title before making it to the final in Eastbourne, so she’s shown she can play on grass. With Pliskova only trailing Kerber by 1,320 points in the rankings, she’s the clear favorite to become the next #1.
results
Brisbane – Champion
Australian Open – QF
Doha – Champion
Dubai – R2
Indian Wells – SF
Miami – SF
Venus Williams
How great has it been to watch Venus Williams’ success in the first quarter of the year, and how much joy she still finds in the game? It may best for Venus to take a note out of the Federer playbook and sit out a few of the clay tournaments. Clay is not her strong suit, and she was not 100% physically in Indian Wells or Miami. Come Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, a healthy Venus has to be considered a contender for the title. Considering she’s approaching 37 and after all she’s been through, it’s so nice to have Venus back in the major title conversation.
results
Auckland – R2
Australian Open – Runner-up
St. Petersburg – R2
Indian Wells – QF
Miami – SF
Charleston – R2
Johanna Konta
Just 20 months ago, Konta was ranked outside the top 100 and had to qualify for the 2015 U.S. Open. Now she’s coming off the biggest title of her career in Miami with a career-high ranking at #7 (and #2 in the Race to Singapore). It will be interesting to see how Konta performs on the clay and the grass. Her best results have all come on hard courts, but it’s easy to see her improve play translating to other surfaces. With very little points to defend over the next 3 months, her ranking should continue to improve.
results
Shenzhen – SF
Sydney – Champion
Australian Open – QF
Indian Wells – R2
Miami – Champion
Caroline Wozniacki
Speaking of ranking ascents, Wozniacki has quietly returned to the top 12 in the world, and was the third best player in the first quarter of 2017. After missing the entire clay court season in 2016, the next few months could easily find her ranking cut in half. But I still struggle to see Caroline winning a major – her defensive game just leaves too much in the hands of her opponent on any given day.
results
Auckland – QF
Sydney – QF
Australian Open – R3
Doha – Runner-up
Dubai – Runner-up
Indian Wells – QF
Miami – Runner-up
Charleston – QF
Garbine Muguruza
The defending French Open champion has had a rough road of disappointing results since Roland Garros last year. A letdown after achieving such a career milestone is one thing, but an almost full-year of underperforming is worrisome. I don’t see Muguruza dealing well with the pressure of defending her title in Paris, but long term I still believe Muguruza will win more majors. She’s a streaky player that can put together a strong run when she’s confident, and she’s not intimidated in the big moments or against big name opponents. If she can find more consistency in her game, and as she matures more and settles into her role as a top player, watch out.
results
Brisbane – SF
Australian Open – QF
Doha – R2
Dubai – R2
Indian Wells – QF
Miami – R4
