The first quarter of 2017 has been dominated by Switzerland’s Roger Federer as the top two players in the tour struggle. Approaching the clay swing on the tour, here is how the the most notable players have performed during the first three months of the season, as well as their prospects heading into Q2.
Roger Federer
The first quarter of 2017 has been beyond even Federer’s own wildest dreams, coming back from a six-month injury layoff to win the Australian Open, Indian Wells, and Miami (and defeating his biggest nemesis, Nadal, in all three tournaments). Following his Miami victory, Roger told the media he did not plan on playing any clay tournaments except for Roland Garros, citing the need for his 35-year-old body to rest after so much tennis so far this year. His expectation of victory in Paris would be low, so it’s smart of Roger to take an extended break and focus his energy on the grass court and summer hard court seasons. Will he take more big titles this year? It’s hard to imagine he will continue dominance like this, but even if he fails to win another major or masters title this year his 2017 would still be a great success solely based on his first three months. He’s finally gained a mental edge over Nadal, and with Djokovic and Murray’s struggles with injury, I like a healthy Federer’s chances. He’s feeling confident and displaying a lack of pressure, which is a dangerous combination.
Rafael Nadal
If it weren’t for Federer’s resurgence, how many 2017 titles would Nadal have taken home? Federer was the man to eliminate Nadal from the three biggest tournaments thus far of 2017. After a decade of dominating the head-to-head with Federer, and preventing Roger from winning big titles time and time again, their roles have totally reversed. But Federer does not plan to be in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, or Rome. Even if Federer was there, Rafa has dominated those tournaments for the most of the past decade. It’s very easy to see Nadal building on his good play to start the year and having another strong clay court season. A lot will happen between now and Roland Garros, but as of today a healthy Nadal must be favored in Paris.
Andy Murray
His triumph at the World Tour Finals seems like a long time ago. After going on a tear to close out 2016 as the newly-anointed number one, Murray has struggled thus far in 2017, and is now sidelined with an elbow injury. Nadal and Federer have been the clear top 2 players in 2017. Once Murray gets back to 100%, will he be able to overcome two resurgent GOAT contenders? It may be an uphill battle, as Murray has lost all the momentum he had just a few months ago
Novak Djokovic
You may have noticed a common thread in discussing Federer, Nadal, and Murray’s prospects: their health. All have battled injuries over the past year, but talking about the health of Novak Djokovic seems a bit more complicated. It’s obvious not all is 100% with Novak physically, mentally, emotionally – perhaps even spiritually. Last June Djokovic reached an achievement not even Nadal or Federer have been able to reach: holding all four major titles at once. He completely dominated the sport for the better part of eighteen months. A drop in level (and motivation) following such a career milestone is understandable, but his recent form is extremely bewildering. It’s hard to predict what’s next for Novak – he may regain his form on the clay, but it’s just as easy to see his struggles continuing. Just as his incredibly high level of a year ago was not sustainable, it feels inevitable that Djokovic will find his form again and get back to winning titles. My only question is: when?
Stan Wawrinka
Much like Nadal, how many titles would Wawrinka have in 2017 if not for Federer? Stan being a streaky player, there’s no telling what the rest of his season will hold. But the winner of 3 of the last 13 majors has to be considered a top contender at Roland Garros, and he’s only a Wimbledon title away from a career grand slam. His grass skills have improved in recent years, so don’t count him out in SW19 either. Wawrinka should be considered more than just a dark horse at all the majors.
Grigor Dimitrov
Dimitrov’s January was the best month of his career, defeating multiple top-ranked players on his way to the Brisbane title and narrowly losing to Nadal in a stellar five-set semifinal at the Australian Open. Coming out of Melbourne, I wondered if this would be his Wawrinka moment or his Verdasco moment. By that I mean would he use this as a stepping stone to bigger, sustained success as Wawrinka did after his breakthrough encounter with Djokovic in 2013, or would he struggle to maintain these results going forward as Verdasco did after his 2009 semifinal loss to Nadal? Following Melbourne, his results have been mixed. February saw Dimitrov win another title in his home country of Bulgaria, but since then his results have slowed with losses to David Goffin, Jack Sock (despite holding match points), and Guido Pella. Clay has not been Grigor’s strongest surface, so reversing the trend of early exits around could prove to be challenging. Regardless I would expect Dimitrov to perform strongly come grass court season, a surface better suited for his game.
Nick Kyrgios
After a very disappointing exit in Melbourne, where he was booed by some fans in his home country, Nick Kyrgios responded with an extremely impressive February and March. He defeated Djokovic twice in a row, and narrowly lost to Federer in the Miami Final after three tiebreak sets. There’s still been some arguments and broken rackets along the way, but by Kyrgios standards he has been relatively well behaved. Like Dimitrov, Kyrgios’s strongest results have not come on clay, but he has shown he play on it – most notably defeating Federer in Madrid 2015 in their first-ever meeting. Also like Dimitrov, I would expect his results to pick back up come Wimbledon. Over the long term, it may be Kyrgios’ difficulty to handle adversity that hinders his progress. He’s looked more positive as he’s been winning, but I still question his ability to control his temper when he falls behind in a match. I also question his mental and physical stamina when purposed with winning seven best-of-five set matches at the majors.
Jack Sock
Sock has quietly become a consistent performer on the ATP World Tour. Jack has reached a career-high ranking at #15, and is currently #7 in the Race to London. He already has 2 titles in 2017, and has made the quarterfinals or better at the past 4 Masters tournaments. Still a major title seems like a long shot – he’s only twice made the 4th round at a major, he’s 0-8 against the current Top 5, and his backhand remains a liability. That being said, I like Jack’s chances of continuing his recent success during the clay court season. He cites clay as his favorite surface, and his record at Roland Garros shows it’s been his best major.
