It is the biggest active rivalry in mens tennis, and one of the closest too. The Saturday final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal may only be at a ATP 250 event, but it is a match laden with significance.
The first note is that the head-to-head record is finally equal. Nadal had held the ascendency since the first meeting at Roland Garros, and Djokovic only levelled things with victory at the ATP World Tour Finals in London last year. With victory in Doha, Djokovic could finally pull ahead of his Nadal for the first time.
The second note is that though this is most definitely a rivalry, it could be considered a rivalry on the wane. Rafael Nadal is a great player but his recent record against Novak Djokovic makes increasing alarming reading for the Spaniard. Djokovic has won the last four matches in the rivalry, and eight of he last nine. Though it is fair to say that Djokovic has dominated the field of tennis the last few seasons, Nadal will remain in top circles whether he wins or not, but if he loses, commentators could speculate that his was where Djokovic finally asserted his superiority over Nadal.
The final point is more general, and would relate to any top players encountering one another at these very early events. For it is early. But it is a catalyst for one of these two players to really send a message to the rest of the tennis world that they are the person to beat in 2016. A Nadal victory would go some way to alleviating the issues of self-doubt that he admitted struggling with last year.
To the match itself. Djokovic has not dropped a set this week, and has looked in very good but not special form. There were moments in the matches against both Leonardo Mayer and Tomas Berdych where the Serbian’s serve looked vulnerable. However, Djokovic did rally fairly easily both times.
Nadal has played two convincing matches when defeating Robin Haase and Illya Marchenko this week, but failed to dominate against Andrey Kuznetsov in the quarter-finals. However, Nadal found the reserves to grind put the win against the Russian, something he failed to do at this tournament last year in his shock early defeat to Michael Berrer.
Nadal looks a much better player than the one who struggled through two-thirds of 2015. That being said, it is still not the Nadal that used to dominate the tour and ruthlessly dismissed opponents. Many still face Nadal believing in the shock rather than being intimidated by a multiple Grand-Slam champion. If he is to have a chance to defeat Djokovic, Nadal must play high-risk, high-reward tennis, and look to run onto his potent forehand at every opportunity. The second serve is a weakness that has plagued him in recent meetings with Djokovic, with the World no.1 seemingly teeing off on that shot at will on occasion.
A Djokovic win would not represent a shock, and the World no. 1 has nothing to prove to Nadal. The one underlining factor that is likely to shape this encounter, much like it has the last four, is that Djokovic is still the most dominant, most complete player on the tour, and for that reason must be considered the heavy favourite for this final.
Prediction: Novak Djokovic to win in straight sets.
Highlights of their most recent encounter at the World Tour Finals in London.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXSnMrBgtxs
